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Newman has already raised some $8 million. Until recently it wasn't too hard, even for an undergraduate, to line up donations. As long as tech stocks were pushing the NASDAQ index to record highs, VCs could take scores of seedling companies public before they had time to fail, and walk away with triple-digit gains. The recent market downturn doesn't seem to faze Newman. "We're taking a long-term view," he says, like a Silicon Valley...
Well, what choice does he have? For the moment, at least, NASDAQ isn't rolling out the welcome mat for most dotcoms, and high-flying Internet IPOs are practically a distant memory. Like his fellow VC wannabes, from buyout king Henry Kravis to anonymous Florida retirees, Newman isn't about to let a little thing like a bear market crush his dreams of jump-starting the next Yahoo and riding it to the bank. Never mind that the vast majority of VC bets have failed or that inexperienced players may have a tough time picking winners in a choppy market...
...yeah. A bear market. Check out the chart. The Dow Jones industrial average, which hit an all-time closing high of 11,723 on Jan. 14, has sunk as much as 16% and in sawtooth fashion has been hitting lower highs since March. The NASDAQ got it much worse. Yes, the rally we've been enjoying the past few weeks has been impressive, fueled by unexpectedly weak economic reports that have, for now, rubbed out inflation fears. Possibly this rally will persist and break the bear-market pattern. But it hasn't yet. Don't rush to redeploy all your...
...know if this is a suckers' rally? You can't. But note this: the NASDAQ's scintillating 19% gain Memorial Day week came on modest volume, and advancing stocks were roughly even with those falling--a tepid showing that suggests this rally could fade like a suntan. Don't be fooled by the sharp gain. Since 1900, there have been 31 bear markets, and in 17 of them there was at least one suckers' rally greater than 10% on the Dow, according to Ned Davis Research. All but one had at least one 5% bounce. The typical bear market...
...from their home to the nearest freeway entrance ramp, at which point the collision-detection computer will take over. Commuters will barrel down the highway at 120 m.p.h., with only a few inches between their car and the next. But will they worry? No, they'll be checking the NASDAQ and gabbing on their cell phone and scouring eBay until they reach their programmed exit--finally ushering in the age of fully automated motoring first promised in GM's spectacular "Futurama" exhibit at the 1939 New York World's Fair...