Word: nassim
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...Northern Rock: If rumors abound about a bank being illiquid, depositors will self-fulfill the prophecy by queuing to clear their accounts. There is a ‘tipping point’ for bubbles or bursts alike, which explains where market performance is anything but normally distributed. As Nassim Taleb made a career out of showing, we end up having “once in a century” events far more often than that. What economists call “fundamentals” are little more than a mirage, subject to constant positive (bubbles) or negative (bursts) feedback loops...
...long symposium was moderated by FAS Divisional Dean of Social Science Stephen M. Kosslyn and included presentations by Peter S. Bearman, Nicholas A. Christakis, Ann Swidler ’66, Nassim N. Taleb, Nick Bostrom, Gary King, Emily Oster ’02, Claudia Goldin, James Fowler, Susan E. Carey ’64, Roland G. Fryer, and Richard J. Zeckhauser...
...depending on the company’s appetite for risk.But VaR modeling does not describe events that occur the other 1 percent of the time. In the New York Times best-seller “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” Nassim N. Taleb, who has held positions at Columbia, Wharton, and NYU, argues that these events—which he dubs “black swans”—are the most important determinants of the course of history. Models that fail to account for them are all but useless. Even...
...world should have learned anything from the worst economic downturn since 1945, it is to heed those who warn that danger is ahead - and to listen to those who argue that it is precisely the least expected catastrophe (a "black swan," as they are now known after Nassim Nicholas Taleb's 2007 book of that name) that can do the most damage. That does not mean we should all live, risk averse, cowering in a cave of our own making. It does mean that it behooves us to listen to those who, based on knowledge and insight, warn...
...centuries, Europeans believed that all swans were white - until black swans were discovered in Australia. A possibly minor moment in ornithology, but one that for Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a former trader turned philosopher, perfectly illustrates how poorly our past experience of the world can prepare us for sudden, unexpected, epochal events. His 2007 book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, gave rise to a new name for these moments, both positive black swans (the rise of the Internet) and negative ones (the 9/11 attacks). Taleb has argued that much of the recent market turmoil has been...