Word: nayak
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...based states. Nepal's interim constitution will expire on May 28, and if its politicians cannot agree on a new one by then, the constituent assembly will be dissolved, new elections will be called and, many observers fear, the country will enter a period of deep uncertainty. Says Nihar Nayak, a researcher with the New Delhi-based Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses: "They are moving toward a political crisis." (See pictures of China's investments in Africa...
...Nepal by investing in infrastructure as well as more troops on the border. Security experts say that that jihadist groups in the region exploit the porous border between India and Nepal, and they worry that India's Maoist insurgency may do the same. "That is their biggest concern," says Nayak. (See pictures of China's infrastructure boom...
...dark cloud, has a very bright silver lining. "It will affect the peace process obviously, the integration [of former rebels into the army] also. The constitution-making process will be delayed, and the country's economic condition, already serious due to the global downturn, will worsen," says Nihar Nayak, Associate Fellow at the New Delhi-based Institute of Defense and Security Analysis. "There may be street demonstrations, general strikes, road blockades, but no return to the jungle. Whatever action will be taken, will be within the Nepali constitution, and in a democratic...
Another reason analysts are optimistic is that the Maoists still have enough popular support. Nayak points out that in parliamentary by-elections for six seats last month, the Maoists won three. Also, they wouldn't want to turn international opinion against them again. "The last few months of Maoists' rule has shown a certain lack of statecraft," says Dixit, "They sought to weaken all institutions of state. Now they're faced with losing face while in government. Prachanda's decision is definitely good for his personal image, though his followers may be nonplussed...
...most likely scenario for the coming days - in addition to street protests led by Maoists and their sympathizers - is for the next largest party to form a government. "Nepal cannot afford another election," says Nayak, "The government has not even completed one year. The President may ask the Nepali Congress [the second biggest party] to form a government, or may ask Prachanda to revoke his decision." A coup is almost ruled out: Nepal's army has no history of seeking political power, furthermore it knows it has the support of the President and the other political parties. "All other parties...