Word: nebozhenko
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...government he forms, assuming he ousts Tymoshenko as Prime Minister. The Russian authoritarian model is not tempting to many of the oligarchs who back Yanukovych. "They don't want to become politically dependent on Russia. They're worried they'll meet the same fate as [Mikhail] Khodorkovsky," says Viktor Nebozhenko, a political analyst in Kiev, referring to the jailed Russian tycoon...
...mere 0.97 percent, an already triumphant Tymoshenko promised the media this morning that she would face them next time as Premier. However, as more votes come in from eastern Ukraine, the PR's stronghold, Yanukovych may still come up the winner, says respected Kiev-based political analyst, Victor Nebozhenko. If he pulls it off, however, it will be by a much narrower margin than expected, Nebozhenko says, and given the PR's campaign investment of some $400 million, "it's a rout...
...Nebozhenko believes no less a rout awaits President Yushchenko, the hero of the Orange Revolution almost three years ago. The pro-presidential alliance of Our Ukraine and People's Defense, (OUPD) is trailing in third with some 15% of the vote. And as the results come out, the real intrigue - who will build a majority coalition and on what terms - will emerge from the back rooms into the limelight. If she squeaks by Yanukovych, Tymoshenko appears to be in a stronger position than ever to dictate terms to Yushchenko...
...majority coalition. Then the coalition asks the President to nominate the Premier, who in turn forms the Cabinet. Said Tymoshenko to TIME: "Now we have not only to contemplate the Cabinet's first steps, but also watch very carefully how the coalition will be shaping up." This time, comments Nebozhenko, the process will be turned inside out: the President and his Premier may have to make a deal on the cabinet first before building a coalition. Fighting over the Cabinet jobs is where the Oranges are very likely to fall apart, Nebozhenko believes. He predicts that talks between...
...Cabinet, pledged the armed forces' obedience to the President; the Rada, on the other hand, controls the police. Meanwhile, all the political forces vow to abide by the court's ruling, which is expected within days. "That might be one way out of this stalemate," says Viktor Nebozhenko, Ukraine's authoritative political analyst. But even the most Solomonic judgment may not be enough to repair the bitter rift between the two democratically elected branches of Ukraine's fractured government and set the country on a clear and peaceful course...