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...that country is feeling isn't seasonal. It's economic. Argentina is on the verge of defaulting on its debt, and people have taken to the streets to protest economic policy. A debacle in Argentina is by itself no big threat to the U.S., and Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill has said as much. Nor is a meltdown in Turkey. But Argentina is only one of several dangerous financial storms brewing overseas that in combination could damage the U.S. economy. Think about sharply rising energy costs, lower output and an even shakier stock market...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Recovery At Risk | 8/1/2001 | See Source »

...recession. U.S. bank exposure to Argentina as of March was about $12 billion; now add Brazil's $24 billion and Mexico's $18 billion. During the past decade, thousands of U.S. firms have invested heavily in Latin America, buying companies, building plants and partnering deals. O'Neill has said he rejects the idea that "contagion" is inevitable in global financial markets. But consider that foreign direct investment in Brazil, which it needs to keep its accounts buoyant, fell about $3.5 billion in the first half...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Recovery At Risk | 8/1/2001 | See Source »

...Candidate George W. Bush wanted major tax cuts, missile defense and other big ticket items. Al Gore talked up a hefty new prescription-drug entitlement and more money for education. As recently as a few weeks ago, there seemed to be enough funds for Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill to say he hoped that the corporate income tax could be abolished in the not too distant future. But such hopes have been dashed. Bush's chief economic adviser, Lawrence Lindsey tells TIME that O'Neill's idea isn't yet Administration policy and may never...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The One That Got Away | 7/23/2001 | See Source »

...voters who are just starting to pay into the system. They have more experience than their elders in playing the stock market where there can be higher returns. "It's wrong to mislead people with promises of 'trust the government, you'll be fine,'" says Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill. "People can do better if they own their own retirement nest...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Coming Fight Over Privatizing Social Security | 7/23/2001 | See Source »

...Well, for starters, here's the economic state of things headed into August. The economy spent the second quarter very near zero GDP growth, if not at zero or below. (O'Neill insists we're still in positive territory.) It won't get much help from businesses - Wall Street is flat, and will be for months at least, because most businesses are still recovering from those heady cash-burning days of the late '90s and are cutting costs as fast as they can. They're still selling off old inventories, which means they're cutting production (and workers, most companies...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Uncle Sam Wants You to Spend Your Rebate | 7/17/2001 | See Source »

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