Word: netanyahu
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...first reason is that he's taking on Netanyahu where the Israeli Prime Minister is weakest. Israelis may not be thrilled about freezing settlement growth, but it's not an issue like Iran's nuclear program, which they consider important enough to risk their relationship with the U.S. over. A poll published in Israel's largest newspaper, Yediot Aharonot, on June 5 found that 56% of Israelis would rather cave on the settlements issue than face sanctions...
...Hillary Clinton and Dennis Ross) and made the kind of symbolic gestures (holding a seder at the White House and condemning Holocaust denial in Cairo) that reassure many American Jews. Historically, Israel's American supporters have used their strength in Congress to box Presidents in a corner. But when Netanyahu came to Washington last month, even reliably pro-Israel Jewish members of Congress gave him an earful on settlements. (Watch a video about Israel's lonesome doves...
...third reason Obama will most likely win this fight is that Netanyahu has bigger fish to fry. He knows that sometime in the next year or two, he could well end up paying a visit to the White House to ask for U.S. support for a military strike against Iran's nuclear program. For an Israeli Prime Minister, alienating a U.S. President is almost always bad politics, but it's particularly bad politics when you need his help to stop what you've called an existential threat. If Israelis decide Netanyahu can't negotiate with the U.S. effectively over Iran...
...Netanyahu, backing down won't be easy. If he concedes too much, his right-leaning government could fall. But that's not Obama's problem. In fact, the White House would probably be thrilled if Netanyahu were forced to trade his right-wing partners for a coalition with Tzipi Livni's centrist Kadima Party, which is serious about a peace process with the Palestinians. It would be even happier if Livni replaced Netanyahu altogether...
This crisis has already revealed something about Obama: he's not timid. If he succeeds in getting Netanyahu to freeze settlement growth, his next moves may be to dial up the pressure on the U.S.'s Arab allies to take steps toward recognizing the Jewish state and put heat on the Palestinians to overcome their political division, which might entail some easing of the U.S. ban on dealing with Hamas. The latter move would spark loud wailing and gnashing of teeth on both the Israeli and American right. But it may not matter. During the campaign, Obama's foreign policy...