Word: netanyahu
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...Hebron events are unlikely to affect the outcome of Israel's election in February. Polls show conservative Likud Party candidate and former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holding a solid lead over acting Prime Minister Tzipi Livni, with Defense Minister Ehud Barak - who ordered the Hebron raid on the same day his Labor Party held its primary election - running a very distant third. But their impact on other players in the West Bank may be profound: the actions of the Hilltop Youth were condemned and strongly discouraged by the long-established settler leadership of the Yesha Council, who recognized that young...
...capital. So fractured is the Israeli political consensus, however, that it's quite possible that February's election will fail to break the impasse. Israel's proportional representation system means that even if Livni does manage to fend off the powerful challenge of right-wing former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, she may still lack a majority capable of forcing through a peace agreement that will ignite fierce, and probably violent, resistance from militant right-wing West Bank settlers. Israeli democracy has not given any political party or politically coherent bloc a clear majority in parliament since...
...minds of Israeli voters. Iran's nuclear program is seen as far more menacing than any threat currently emanating from the Palestinians. So, while a majority of voters may incline more toward Livni's two-state approach to peace with the Palestinians, it could yet be swayed by Netanyahu's more hawkish stance on Iran. And then there's the Obama factor. Given Obama's stated preference for dialogue with Tehran, many in Israel are concerned that his Administration may lower the pressure on the regime. If Obama's victory has left Israelis uncertain about the intentions of his Administration...
...Another important lesson on the dangers of polling came in Israel in 1996. Despite initial exit polling suggesting Shimon Peres had been elected Prime Minister, when the actual votes were tallied it was Binyamin Netanyahu who emerged victorious. I spent six tough but fascinating years based in Jerusalem. Reminders of the day when Israel “went to bed with Peres and woke up with Bibi” were often given to caution foreign journalists against placing too much trust in Israeli opinion polls...
...president will first consult with other party leaders in the next few days before he officially calls for early elections. Polls show that ex-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's hawkish Likud party has an edge over Livni's Kadima party. But Livni's advisers say that her refusal to give in to the "extortionate" demands of Shas and the other fringe parties could sway voters to her side. For years, Israel's big political parties have been unable to win solid majorities and, as a result, have found themselves at the mercy of the smaller parties' whims. Many Israelis...