Word: nevadas
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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After the Jan. 19 Nevada caucuses, in which Latino voters supported Senator Clinton by a ratio of nearly 3 to 1, some journalists literally borrowed Bendixen's analysis word for word before going on to speculate about Barack Obama's political fortunes in such delegate-rich states as California and Texas. Ignoring the possibility that Nevada's Latino voters actually preferred Clinton or, at the very least, had fond memories of her husband's presidency, more than a few pundits jumped on the idea that Latino voters simply didn't like the fact that her opponent was African American...
...political parties and Latino elected officials are also important. For a well-known black politician or incumbent, there is little problem winning Latino voters. But when the candidate is not well-known, it helps to be endorsed by mediating institutions that people trust. Part of Obama's problem in Nevada was that, apart from the late endorsement by the Culinary Workers' Union, he didn't have a lot of that institutional support. And though he has begun to build those relationships in California--including the endorsement of the Latina head of the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor...
...Nevada, more than 116,000 voters attended Democratic party caucuses in a state where, eight years ago, the gatherings attracted only about 1,000 votes. Republicans, too, broke turnout records. But their total of 44,315 votes was about a third the size of the Democrats...
...total, in the four states where there have been two-party contests - Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina - 1,174,227 Democrats have turned out to vote compared to 827,315 Republicans, a ratio of 7 to 5. As of now, the level of primary participation is nearing the levels seen in general elections...
...These margins matter because Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada are all closely contested swing states in presidential elections. A switch of less than 10,000 votes in any of the three in 2004 would have handed each state's electoral college votes to a different party...