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...other big takeaways? A huge one is reversion to the mean [the tendency of an extreme event to be followed by a less extreme one]. Really high performance is a function of skill and luck. And luck, by definition, is transitory - it comes and goes. The next time you do something, even if you sustain your skill, maybe you'll have a little less luck, and you'll mean revert. When you apply that to the world, you see it everywhere - corporate performance, sports-team performance, individual performance. It gets you to think about how to evaluate outcomes. For example...
...this situation? It looks at things from a larger statistical sample. Almost always the outside view gives you an answer that's more pessimistic than the inside view. An analyst sent us a report about Amazon.com that said I think they can grow 25% a year for the next 10 years. The analyst looked at the category, at international expansion - he had a story - but the question is, how many companies in history have ever done that? The psychology of this is that there are all these illusions that we have, like the illusion of superiority and the illusion...
...jumpstart ventures that could dominate China's post-crisis economic environment, in which heavy industry and manufacturing is supposed to take a back seat to higher "value-added" and consumer-focused businesses. It is no coincidence that some in local media grandly refer to "the search for the next Microsoft" in reports about the new board...
...strong. This may give the CDU/CSU room for a little bit more creativity." His fellow Christian Democrat Klaus Pump, 80, is also content. "The most important thing is that we have a change of government," he says. "The Reds - the SPD - have gone down quite spectacularly. However, the next four years will be a tough time for Germany." Even Merkel's fans are moderating their jubilation...
Quotes About: • "Looking back, there can be no question that he did something awful. It was a terrible thing to do to a young girl. But it was also 25 years ago - 26 years next month. And, honestly, the publicity surrounding it was so traumatic that what he did to me seemed to pale in comparison ... I don't really have any hard feelings toward him, or any sympathy, either." - Samantha Geimer, the young woman Polanski had sex with in 1977. Los Angeles Times...