Word: nicaragua
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...same time, support for anti-Communist insurgencies has its limitations. As Nicaragua makes clear, the U.S. is still incapable of waging truly covert warfare of any magnitude. In this respect, the Soviets enjoy a permanent advantage. The First Chief Directorate of the KGB, the principal clandestine arm of Soviet foreign policy, can engage in dirty tricks while preserving its "plausible deniability." The CIA's Directorate for Operations, by contrast, is subject to oversight by a notoriously leaky and fastidious U.S. Congress...
...Nicaragua also illustrates, Congress is nearly as reluctant today to approve secret wars as it was a decade ago, when Henry Kissinger wanted to bankroll Savimbi and other anti-Communists in Angola. Thus, while the worldwide network of Soviet clients is vulnerable to American counterpressure, it is difficult for the U.S. to sustain that pressure, not to mention apply it clandestinely...
...guerrilla movements in which the U.S. is most involved, in Nicaragua and Afghanistan, may both be approaching turning points. The civil wars there have indeed succeeded in softening up the Soviets and their local comrades. The regimes in Managua and Kabul, while not crying uncle, are clearly hurting and may even be looking for a negotiated compromise. The rebels, while not about to win, are not about to surrender either. Soon the U.S., as their principal backer, may have to decide on the next step...
That means the time may have come for the diplomats. A number of Western experts believe Mikhail Gorbachev is looking for a face-saving settlement in Afghanistan. In Nicaragua, continued American support for the contras might eventually force the Sandinistas to accept a peace plan along the lines of one put forward by Opposition Leader Arturo Cruz. He calls for a cease-fire in exchange for new elections and democratic guarantees. A settlement should also provide for a reduction in the Nicaraguan armed forces and limitations on Soviet and Cuban arms. The U.S. is not likely to ease...
...Nicaragua, in Afghanistan and elsewhere, the U.S. has clearly recognized that support for guerrilla warfare can be a legitimate and effective ploy in the great game of superpower competition. Recently the Administration seems also to have come around to recognizing that its hand, while strong, should not be overplayed...