Word: nigeria
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...orderly, fair election in Nigeria would give a mighty fillip to the democratic project in Africa. The transfer of power from one elected President to another would also be a first for Nigeria. If all goes well, an important test will have been passed, an important example set. But already there is widespread fraud and violence, and if the result is contested by substantial numbers of voters, the turmoil will affect the whole continent. Nigeria is not just its most populated country, it is the big brother of West Africa...
...Nigeria's previous elections provide slim grounds for optimism. Its politics are traditionally run by local political godfathers - mainly state governors - who forge deals and alliances to support candidates. That support can take the form of bribes, vote rigging and intimidation of rivals. This campaign has already been scarred by violence. More than 60 people have been killed in political clashes since November, and that figure will probably increase as the election nears. The electoral commission has little credibility after its disastrous reregistration exercise last year which saw the number of voters miraculously leap from 50 million to 61 million...
...there are signs of change. A few nonpoliticians are running for office and raising the debate above pork-barrel politics. And there is no incumbent fighting to retain the presidency. Olusegun Obasanjo is stepping down after eight years in power - Nigeria's longest-ever period of democratic rule. It's not that he's leaving voluntarily, exactly. It says something for the strength of Nigeria's fledgling parliament that last year it derailed a plan to amend the constitution so Obasanjo could run for a third term...
...leaves bloody anarchy in the Niger Delta, which produces most of Nigeria's 2.5 million bbl. of oil a day and increasing volumes of gas. At least 1,000 people a year are killed in battles on land and sea between the 50-odd militias who fight the authorities as well as each other for opportunities to steal oil and kidnap oil workers for ransom...
...Obasanjo has given the country some stability, pushing through profound economic reforms, achieving an $18 billion debt cancellation deal and taking on some of Nigeria's most corrupt politicians. More than $380 billion has been stolen by Nigeria's rulers over the past five decades according to the government. One military ruler alone stole some $6 billion. Obasanjo set up the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (efcc), which says it has recovered $5 billion of stolen assets, going after ministers and governors, and even prosecuting the chief of police, who served six months in jail...