Word: nissan
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...After all, Japan's own big three - Toyota, Honda and Nissan - have battled for decades to surpass once mighty GM, Ford and Chrysler. Now it would appear victory is at hand. Even if lawmakers bail out all three, the U.S. companies will require major restructuring that will leave them smaller and weaker, making it easier for their Asian rivals to gain market share both in the U.S. and globally. (See the 50 worst cars of all time...
...While no Japanese automaker is on the brink of bankruptcy, Toyota's executive vice president Mitsuo Kinoshita calls the sharp contraction of global sales "unprecedented." Toyota, Honda and Nissan are slashing earnings estimates, firing workers and trimming production. In November, the Japanese auto industry saw its worst month in more than three decades, as domestic sales fell 27.3% compared with the same month last year. Sales of Japanese cars in the U.S. fell more than 30% last month...
...This bleak outlook could get even worse, at least in the short term, if GM, Ford or Chrysler went bust. That's because of a domino effect that would probably result in the subsequent failures of parts suppliers that also sell to factories operated by Toyota, Honda and Nissan in the U.S. Vehicles built on American soil accounted for 63% of Japan's total U.S. sales in 2007, according to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association. A sudden parts shortage could force companies to shut down some of those assembly lines, generating major losses...
...Detroit Three, in fact, may have to shrink to two. Chrysler, which burned through $3 billion in cash in its last quarter and has $6.1 billion left, is looking for more partners like Nissan, which is already contracted to build a small car for the company. Chrysler's owner - Cerberus Capital Management, a New York City private-equity firm - got a lemon when it bought 80% of the company from Daimler for $7.2 billion last year. A merger could...
...higher gasoline prices. So for the first 11 months of 2008, GM's sales have fallen 21.9%. While that is comparable to Ford and Chrysler (down 20.6% and 27.7% respectively), it's far worse than Asian competitors. Toyota is down 13.4% this year, Honda has declined just 5.4%, and Nissan has shrunk by 9.1%. They will be far better positioned to rebound once the market recovers...