Word: nuclear
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Dates: during 1960-1969
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Thinking about nuclear war is like looking straight into the sun: it is beyond worldly experience, and it hurts your eyes. You need the mental equivalent of smoked glass. Herman Kahn's latest book, On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios, offers some of this equipment: metaphors, fables, models, and analogies to look at the possible extremes of war and their implications for what used to be "peaceful" aspects of international affairs...
...central idea of On Escalation is that all international encounters take place in an atmosphere of possible violence, ranging from small "conventional" probes to all-out nuclear holocaust. Strategies of victory may be based on either the concrete elements of the crisis or on manipulation of levels of violence. The nuclear "balance of terror," however, discourages the actual use of force and makes threats a major means of international coercion. For the nuclear age, Clausewitz is amended to read: "The manipulation of the risks of war is the continuation of state policy by other means...
...refuse to take Kahn seriously. Such a reaction has two faults: it neglects Kahn's real insights into the nature and use of force, and it obscures the real weaknesses of his approach. Kahn is not "advocating" or "justifying" mass murder. He wishes to avoid nuclear war while pursuing some version of the national interest. To this end he asks the important question: under what circumstances is a nuclear war most likely to begin...
...years, Kahn tells us, American strategic planning was woefully unrealistic regarding the likely genesis of a nuclear war. During the 1950's, about ninety per cent of our attention was devoted to deterring a calculated Soviet strike "out of the blue," that is, in an otherwise "normal" international situation. The other ten per cent of our planning was devoted to preventing an accidental war, again arising out of a normal situation. Kahn sees both of these possibilities as improbable, and argues that a nuclear war will most likely begin during a very tense crisis. The likely causes of the outbreak...
...chief purpose of the escalation ladder metaphor is to clarify our options for action at the "middle rungs," when we are using large conventional forces and threatening nuclear war to coerce our enemies. Only if we know how to move up and down the ladder skillfully, will we be able to pursue the national interest and at the same time avoid a possible escalation to all-out nuclear...