Word: nuclearization
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...Russia would have to join in an economic crackdown. To get those countries on board, Ross wrote last year, "there may be value in enlisting Israel to send a high-level delegation privately to European capitals to make the point that while others feel they can live with a nuclear Iran, Israel does not have that luxury." The implications of such a message would get anyone's attention...
...this striped-pants nicety were not enough, on April 8, the State Department announced it would join the Europeans, Russia and China in nuclear talks with Iran without condition - meaning that Iran could continue enriching uranium while all sides figured out how to start talking, a concession the U.S. had never made before. The U.S. also backed the package of Western incentives offered to Iran in July 2008 - including economic, humanitarian and development aid - and formally invited the Iranians to talk...
...while, it looked as if Iran was going to smile back. According to senior U.S. and European diplomats, Saeed Jalili, Iran's representative at the nuclear talks, told Javier Solana, the European Union's foreign policy chief, that Iran would accept the invitation to talks. But then Jalili stalled, they say. By the end of the month, the U.S. and Europe concluded that Iran would not make a move before its presidential elections. Reflecting American distrust, the U.S. decided it would not reciprocate when Saberi was released on May 11; according to a senior Administration official, there...
...should not be seen as a surprise. Ross's policy is straightforward; if bigger carrots don't work, try bigger sticks. If Tehran doesn't enter serious negotiations by September, the U.S. intends to unveil a raft of penalties. In return for U.S. participation in the nuclear talks, Ross got the Europeans to help plan sanctions that would target Iranian businesses that have nothing to do with the nuclear program. The U.S. wants bans on insuring Iranian energy firms and any companies that do business with them. It also wants to stop credit guarantees for Iranian energy companies and those...
...Europe and Russia all insist Obama's offer of talks is genuine and remains on the table. Perhaps the presidential election in Iran will bring a significant change; perhaps Tehran will negotiate its nuclear program back into compliance with international treaties. But few of those involved in Iran policy expect such events to happen. Dennis Ross has spent the first months of the Obama Administration peeling carrots. Don't be surprised if you see him soon sharpening sticks...