Word: nuclearization
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...behind that view is supported by Thomas Fringar, chairman of the U.S. National Intelligence Council and the senior analyst in Washington's intelligence community. In a recent preview of his council's Global Trends 2025 report, Fringar noted that Iran's leaders will eventually decide on whether to build nuclear weapons based on their assessment of their security environment."The United States took care of Iran's principal security threats [Saddam Hussein and the Taliban]," he said, "except for us, which the Iranians consider a mortal threat...
...Part of the reason for the current standoff, says Hourcade, is that in order to keep the capacity to build nuclear weapons out of Iran's hands, the West is offering Tehran incentives to forego certain activities - such as uranium enrichment - that it is legally allowed to pursue under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. "The flaw with the carrot and stick approach is that Iran's leaders - backed by wide consensus in Iranian society - view as a sovereign right the development of a civil nuclear program as they see fit, meaning any carrots designed as a swap for that are regarded...
...Even former Republican Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger, James Baker and Colin Powell have urged expanding direct contacts between the two nations, and the Bush Administration last July sent U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs William Burns sat down with diplomats from Iran and Europe to discuss the nuclear stand-off. Regardless of campaign-trail rhetoric, the need to talk directly to Tehran is fast becoming bipartisan conventional wisdom in the U.S. foreign policy establishment...
...Iran doesn't need an actual nuclear bomb for deterrence if its security can be ensured in other ways - like through accords with the U.S." Hourcade says. "Meanwhile, Germany and Japan have the capacity to build a bomb within three months and that bothers no one. The idea is get Iran to evolve towards behavior where its possession of materials and knowledge to build a bomb is viewed as equally improbable of those being used to actually construct...
...Besides, says Billion, there may actually be more dangerous threats out there than the one presented by Iran developing a nuclear energy program that could potentially be used to create a weapon. "Though we'd all like to see Iran's political structure far more open, free, and pluralistic, even its fiercest opponents won't accuse Iran of being unstable and chaotic," Billion notes. "Now compare that to our ally Pakistan, whose construction of a nuclear bomb didn't provoke anywhere near the alarm. Or at least didn't back then...