Word: nuclearization
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...heir, Kim Jong-Un, for succession. Now, the world is stuck with a boy-king who is ill-trained to fend off power-hungry generals bred on Pyongyang’s “military first” policy. Such is the North Korea of nightmares, where nuclear weapons are not a carefully-kept international tease, but a valuable trump card in a close domestic power struggle...
Before the June election, Administration officials spoke of pursuing "comprehensive" talks. They believed the Iranians would discuss their nuclear program only in the context of talks that established Iran as a major player, and necessary interlocutor, on regional issues like Afghanistan and Iraq. There were possible areas for cooperation, especially in Afghanistan. The Iranians showed little appetite for such talks, but it was assumed that an opening would come after the election (although even the Iranian reformers I spoke with were demanding U.S. concessions in advance of negotiations...
...course, the idea of making any sort of introductory concession seems quite impossible now. In fact, you don't hear Administration officials talking about "comprehensive" negotiations anymore. The focus is almost solely on the nuclear issue. "We face a real-time challenge on nuclear proliferation in Iran," the President said at the G-8 summit. "And we're deeply troubled by the proliferation risks Iran's nuclear program poses to the world." Obama offered a "path" to peace for Iran via the ongoing Geneva negotiations, which seemed a more restrictive corridor than comprehensive talks. He set a September deadline...
This emphasis on the nuclear issue is disproportionate. Iran is allowed to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The latest National Intelligence Estimate suggests that Iran doesn't have a nuclear-weapons program - although it once did, and could easily resume weaponization at any time. But let's assume the worst: say Iran is working on a bomb; say it acquires one in the next few years. Only Benjamin Netanyahu and assorted American neoconservatives believe - or pretend to believe - that Iran might actually use it, given Israel's overpowering ability to strike back. Most observers...
...wiser alternative may be to stand down, for a while. "Turn away and whistle," an Iranian academic suggested recently. Don't abandon the nuclear-sanctions process, but don't force it, either. Don't pursue negotiations. Let the disgraced Iranian government pursue us, as it might, in order to rebuild credibility at home and in the world - and then make sure the regime's interest isn't just for show. After all, Iran isn't the most frightening nuclear challenge we're facing. That would be the next country over, Pakistan. In the latest National Interest, Bruce Riedel...