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...There have been a number of estimates as to the financial effects of a pandemic. Some range as high as a 5% drop in global GDP. The calculations that would go into an exercise to come up with a reasonable guess would require more work than the entire length of the recession would allow. But, a pandemic is a long shot for several reasons. The most obvious reason is that healthcare and disease monitoring are much more sophisticated now than they were just six years ago at the beginning of the SARS epidemic, which turned out fortunately...
...more realistic threat is one of terrorism backed by extremists. The U.S. government is right to point out that there have been no attacks on American soil since 911, but there have been violent incidents in Spain, the U.K., India, and a number of other countries where homeland security is not as good as it is in the U.S. The fact that as recently as 2004, terrorists could kill more than 170 people on the Madrid commuter railroad system is an extraordinary reminder that some parts of the social and business infrastructure in the developed world are still terribly vulnerable...
...Wall Street Journal has reported that Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) have done poorly on their "stress tests". Each bank may be encouraged to raise more capital. As a number of analysts have pointed out, private equity has no interest in stakes in troubled banks even at a steep discount to their current market values. To help improve banks' capital bases, the Administration will almost certainly have to take the money it has given and is about to give to banks, and convert it into common stock. That will crush current shareholders and it will create the problem...
...swine flu cases were also confirmed in Canada, Scotland, Spain and the U.S., where the number of confirmed cases more than doubled to 43 - 28 of them students at the same New York City high school. (All the U.S. patients have thus far recovered with few complications.) The deteriorating situation prompted the U.S. State Department to recommend that travelers postpone "nonessential travel" to Mexico - even after U.S. officials criticized the European Union for issuing a travel ban to the U.S. and Mexico. (See five things you need to know about swine...
...when the buyout is coupled with the hiring freeze, it suggests that the faculty intends to decrease the total number of professors it employs, which could seriously harm the diversity and breadth of course offerings and fields of study—a diversity that is central to Harvard’s educational strength. As a cost-cutting measure, the buyout has the potential to damage the depth, reputation, and integrity of the school by effectively eliminating positions and, possibly, entire fields...