Word: oecd
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...industrial nations do expect some sort of recovery. The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has predicted a turnaround in West Germany before year's end, a view shared by Bundesbank Vice President Otmar Emminger. Of the world's major economies, said the OECD, all but Britain and Italy will enjoy real growth in the second half, a trend that will accelerate sharply in 1976 (see chart). To make sure it happens, Schmidt and Giscard agreed a fortnight ago on a joint $5.5 billion pump-priming effort ($2 billion to be spent in Germany, $3.5 billion...
GERMANY, through a policy of stingy government spending and tight credit, cut its annual inflation rate from 7.8% in December 1973 to 5.8% in February. But again, the effort has been costly. Industrial production is now declining at an annual rate of about 10%, and, according to the OECD, unemployment hit 3.6% in January, more than double that of a year earlier (the Bonn government, calculating on a different basis, puts the jobless rate in February at 5.1%). Last December the government embarked on a moderately reflationary course, offering tax credits for industrial investment, lower interest rates and various subsidies...
...actually export a domestic-oil surplus of 1.35 million bbl. a day. The assumption is that high prices would spur a 114% rise in U.S. oil production over a decade while depressing consumption, thus enabling the U.S. to stop importing oil altogether. In this area, the OECD researchers are even more optimistic than the Federal Energy Administration; in its Project Independence Blueprint published last fall, the FEA foresaw imports still hovering at 3.5 million bbl. a day in 1985, even in a high-price situation. A price drop to $7.20, the OECD continues, would leave the U.S. still importing...
...Americans, who are paying historic high prices for energy, and could soon be paying even more under the Administration's energy program, the OECD's projections are about as comforting as January's bill from the local gas and electric company. Yet the OECD conclusions are in line with the arguments Ford has been hearing in recent weeks that a "floor" price of about $11 per bbl. of oil would be the most effective way to reduce imports and increase self-sufficiency. Still, the costs will be steep, perhaps impossibly so for those countries that, unlike...
...OECD estimates that the tab for near self-sufficiency-in terms of higher oil prices, slower growth and investment in new production and alternate energy sources-could add up to $2 trillion between now and 1985 for the industrial nations. Its report dryly observes that some governments might decide that the sacrifices involved in achieving absolute energy independence "may be undesirable." In the end, all governments will have to balance the need for self-sufficiency against other national priorities...