Word: ohira
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...feel as if I have finally managed to I get out of hot water, but I must expect to dip into even hotter water." So said Premier Masayoshi Ohira last week, after he narrowly won a bruising struggle in the Diet to hang on as leader of Japan's majority government. "The Bull," as Ohira is known, might be feeling plenty of new heat soon. Though he fended off a strong challenge from his archrival, former Premier Takeo Fukuda, he now finds himself at the top of not only a shaky regime but also a divided party...
...Ohira's troubles began with Japan's Oct. 7 election. Over the objections of other members of his Liberal Democratic Party (L.D.P.), he had called the vote eleven months earlier than he had to in hopes of increasing his strength in the Diet's 511-member lower house. But some frank talk by Ohira about higher taxes frightened voters, and the party's representation in the Diet slipped by one seat...
...surface, Ohira's performance at the polls might have seemed respectable enough: his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (L.D.P.) increased its popular vote from 42% to 44.6%. The party maintained its plurality in the 511-member lower house of the Diet by winning 248 seats, only one less than it had in the previous parliament; the L.D.P. stays in power because it has the assured support of ten independents, which will give it a voting majority of two. Moreover, Japan's second biggest party and the L.D.P. 's main opposition, the Socialists, captured only 107 seats, a loss...
...fact, the results represented a thumping loss of prestige and power for Ohira. Over the objections of advisers, he had insisted on calling an election 14 months before the constitution required it, in order to win a mandate to cope with the serious economic challenges that Japan faces in the next decade. Far too bullishly, he had predicted a sweeping victory for his party, and confidently set the goals of a "stable majority" of 271 seats. "This election will be the gateway to the 1980s," Ohira promised his audiences...
...underestimated the unpopularity of higher taxes. Early in the campaign he had said that the government would have to consider easing Japan's $70 billion deficit with a zozei, a stiff tax increase, either on personal income or consumer goods. Stung by a vociferous backlash against new taxes, Ohira tried to soft-pedal the issue just before the election, but by then it was too late. Although Ohira can safely ignore demands that he resign, to form a Cabinet he will probably have to surrender some prized ministerial portfolios to the disgruntled powerbrokers who head rival factions within...