Word: oiling
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...last serious disruption in global supplies came 30 years ago, during Iran's revolution, when oil-field workers joined a national strike, effectively taking Iran's 6 million bbl. a day off global oil markets. Back then, Iran's exports accounted for 10% of the world's oil supplies - compared with just 5% today. World oil prices tripled in nine months, from $12.80 a bbl. in September 1978 to $34.40 in June 1979, at the height of the Iran hostage crisis...
...that possibility that's causing anxiety among oil analysts who believe that the quickest asymmetrical means for Iran to react to a military threat would be to disrupt oil delivery. At least 20% of the world's entire oil supply passes through the narrow Strait of Hormuz that runs between Iran and the United Arab Emirates and Oman. Qatar, Kuwait and the U.A.E. ship all their oil through the waterway, while Saudi Arabia - the world's biggest producer - exports half its oil through the strait, the remainder going overland through a pipeline. Since the strait's narrowest point is just...
...Even if U.S. Navy warships quickly stepped in to keep the waterway open, traders and tanker captains would be spooked, and the cost of transporting oil would rise sharply. "It is a scenario anyone who looks at security of supplies considers," says David Fyfe, head of the oil-markets division at the International Energy Agency in Paris, which represents oil-consuming industrialized countries. "It would affect up to 12 million bbl. of oil a day." (See highlights from a debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin...
...Despite the renewed threat of disruption, major oil-consuming countries are in a strong position to withstand any new market shocks. Global stockpiles are at their largest in about five years because of the downturn in demand brought on by the recession. Many countries also created large strategic oil reserves after the 1979 experience. And in an effort to stabilize oil prices, both the U.S. Congress and the Obama Administration are considering clamping down on speculation in energy futures, said Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, on Tuesday. Speculation is one factor believed by economists...
...Some analysts believe that a bigger problem may be consumer panic. Drivers, who on average have one-third of their tank filled, could rush out to fill their tanks, effectively tripling the demand for gas. That alone would send oil prices soaring. So, too, would speculation by investors who predict a drop in supplies. "Prices will rise, and people will buy futures," says Drollas. "Traders will buy because they are worried about their supplies." All that could send market prices rocketing - and deepen the global recession. It remains to be seen whether the market remains calmed by Obama's reassurances...