Word: okun
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Dates: during 1960-1969
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...making headway in its difficult fight against inflationary psychology. All year, Nixon's economic lieutenants have been trying to create a degree of uncertainty in the minds of businessmen, labor and consumers about the prospect for continued prosperity. Many experts find the present outlook no cause for alarm. Arthur Okun, the former head of the Council of Economic Advisers, calls the chance of either a recession or a continued boom "a long shot." By his handicapping, the Government stands a 50% chance of bringing the inflation rate down to about 4% without causing a politically unacceptable rise in unemployment. Still...
Otto Eckstein $992 1.9% 4.4% 6.3% 4.3% 4.6% David Grove $981.3 .9% 4.3% 5.2% 4.4% 4.8% Walter Heller $988 .2% .4% .6% 4.3% to 4.5% 4.7% to 5% Robert Nathan $980 1.5% 4% plus 5.5% 4.5% minus near 5% Joseph Pechman $990 2.2% 4% 6.2% 4.5% 4.8% Arthur Okun $987 2% 4% 6% 4.5% minus 5% to 5.5% Beryl Sprinkle $966 none...
...next year, economists see continuing inflation, though at a slower rate. Arthur Okun, former chief of the Council of Economic Advisers, summarizes the consensus: 1970 shapes up as what could be called a 2-4-6 year -meaning 2% real growth, plus 4% inflationary growth, which would add up to a 6% gain in the gross national product. Unemployment, which unexpectedly fell in November by a half-point, to 3.4%, is expected to rise to about 41%. By Okun's reckoning, corporate profits before taxes will decline 5% or 10%, but if Congress reduces taxes as expected...
...OKUN: Federal pay is a real scary area now, given the attitude in Congress and the pressures of the unions. Let us take another simple thing like fair trade. If we could repeal the fair-trade laws that allow some manufacturers to fix retail prices, that action alone could reduce the consumer price index by an estimated three-tenths of 1%. Then there are oil imports and the whole range of policies regarding agriculture, which have important price implications...
...OKUN: An Administration that will not ask business to toe the line certainly cannot make strong statements on wages. A chief executive of one of the electrical-equipment manufacturing firms told me last October: "If I have a number from the Government on what a reasonable wage increase is for 1969, I will do better in my settlement in October 1969. That number will give me something to stand on, something to bargain from at the table...