Word: okun
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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...last week's TIME Board of Economists meeting, Arthur Okun proposed an incomes policy. The President, he said, should appoint a commission of distinguished citizens to spend six months consulting with labor leaders, corporate chiefs and consumer groups in order to work out equitable and noninflationary guidelines for wage and price behavior. During those six months, the President would ask all businesses to refrain from increasing prices and all labor leaders who are negotiating contracts to take perhaps a 5% interim wage boost and keep the contracts open for final negotiation when the guidelines come out. If even partially accepted...
...because of a weakness in demand for loans. Although the normal growth of the economy would call for a $1 billion increase in bank lending during the summer and fall, bank loans have actually declined by $3.5 billion since June. "Business-loan demand has caved in," says Arthur Okun, former chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers. "The economy is going nowhere, partly because of the General Motors strike. Corporations are paying off their short-term debt...
JOBS will continue to be hard to find because production will not expand as much as the number of potential workers. Unemployment will go a bit above the present 5.5% ; Okun foresees a peak of perhaps 6% some time during 1971. Thereafter it will decline, but may be almost as high at the end of next year as now. Grove predicts a rate of 5.4% in the fourth quarter...
...debate leads to a fundamental question that is less economic than political: Should the U.S. give a higher priority to slowing inflation or to bringing back full employment? Republican Sprinkel and Democrat Okun concur that the U.S. cannot do both in 1971. Heller adds that in order to restore full employment even by Nov. 7, 1972 -when voters will decide whether or not to re-elect President Nixon-the Administration would have to promote a business advance so vigorous that it would surely start a new inflation...
...ARTHUR OKUN, a senior fellow of the Brookings Institution and former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers...