Word: okun
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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...debate whether this year's economic slide could justifiably be called a recession, they may be arguing next year whether so weak a comeback should be certified a recovery. The strike at General Motors will distort the picture for the next six months or so. The walkout, Arthur Okun estimates, will chop $1 billion off the gross national product for each week it lasts, and give a misleading impression of a deepening slump. In early 1971, Okun adds, catch-up production by G.M. will paint an equally deceptive "rosy glow" on the economy. David Grove believes that this false...
Game Plan at Half Time. In a paper prepared for the Senate Democratic Policy Committee, Arthur Okun, Gardner Ackley and Walter Heller, all former Chairmen of the Council of Economic Advisers, predicted that the auto increase could make "dismal reading" out of October price figures. Even that paper, however, conceded that inflation "at last shows signs of ebbing." The business slowdown engineered by the Nixon Administration has clearly wrung much excess demand out of the economy...
...High the Cost? Most Democratic critics no longer question whether Nixon's policies are capable of slowing inflation. Instead, the Ackley-Heller-Okun paper concentrates its arguments around the theme that whatever the game plan has achieved has come much too late, with much too high a cost in production, jobs, income and investment in future growth. These economists contend that presidential guidelines on wage-price increases would have achieved success sooner and that, in order to revive the economy, the Government can afford now to spend more and expand the money supply even faster. Nixon men retort that...
...price controls, which have usually proved to be inequitable and unworkable, might tempt businessmen and labor leaders to defy presidential wrath and increase prices and wages. But there is evidence that guidelines and "jawboning" intervention by the White House held down some prices during the Kennedy-Johnson era. Arthur Okun, a member of TIME'S board, figures that prices rose 1.7% a year between 1966 and 1968 for 15 jawboned industries, including steel, copper, autos and aluminum?but that prices jumped 6% in those industries in Nixon's first year. When Nixon made the mistake of proclaiming at the start...
Worried by the presidential silence, many economists and politicians are urging Nixon to put the jawbone back to work. Walter Heller, onetime chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, calls Nixon's mild admonitions to labor and business "an open-mouth policy without teeth." Arthur Okun, another former CEA chairman, contends that Nixon has in effect declared "open season" for unions and companies to get all they can. Okun figures that between 1966 and 1968, wholesale prices rose an average 2.3% a year for most industries; they went up only 1.7% in 15 "jawboned" industries, including steel, copper, autos...