Word: okun
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...both. If it grows more slowly, then either production or inflation?or both?must slow down. A few economists fear that the bite will come out of production, and they oppose anything but a very gradual slowdown in money growth. "Anyone who calls for a sharper cut," says Arthur Okun, "is advocating recession, and he should come...
...result, according to many economists?including those who think that the President had no choice?is greatly to increase the chances of at least a mild recession next year (and "mild" might mean a rise in unemployment to 7 million people, from almost 6 million now). Grumbles Arthur Okun, a member of TIME'S Board of Economists and sometime Carter
...Arthur Okun of the Brookings Institution: "A recession is now a probability rather than a possibility for next year...
...alternatives to Stage 2, Administration planners believe, are worse. In a burst of candor, COWPS Director Barry Bosworth said that if the plan fails, the U.S. will face a "cruel choice" of outright wage-price controls or recession. Some non-Government economists, including Democrats Arthur Okun and Walter Heller, also believe a recession is becoming more likely, partly because inflation is eating up consumer purchasing power, partly because the Federal Reserve Board is pushing interest rates so high...
Investors' overriding worry, however, is not the dollar but interest rates. Last week the Federal Reserve Board acted to push the "Fed funds" rate at which banks lend to one another to nearly 9%, a level that Economist Okun believes-almost guarantees recession by making borrowing more expensive. Nor is there much hope that the rises in loan charges will stop. The Federal Reserve has been jacking up interest rates largely in order to contain an inflationary increase in the U.S. money supply, but so far it has failed. Money supply during the past month has shot...