Word: okun
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...number of people working, but no great reduction in unemployment. Inflation will speed up from its current pace, and that and other factors could set the stage for a downturn in 1979 or 1980. But for the next twelve months, TIME'S board members unanimously agree with Arthur Okun, a senior fellow of the Brookings Institution: after 2% years of recovery from the 1973-75 recession, "there is one more year of good news in this expansion...
...Okun has a different fear. Since the Federal Reserve has been unable to contain the growth of money supply by the usual method of moving funds in and out of the banking system, it is trying to hold down the money stock by pushing up borrowing costs. Since the start of 1977, the prime rate on bank loans to business has risen from 6¼% to 7¾% in November. Okun's fear is that the board will lift interest rates high enough to discourage borrowing and cause a recession in 1979. Says he: "The Federal Reserve...
...Carter will reappoint him when his term as board chairman expires Jan. 31. Washington speculation on his possible successor is already narrowing to Robert V. Roosa, a partner in the investment banking house of Brown Bros. Harriman, and Paul Volcker, head of the New York Federal Reserve Bank. (Arthur Okun, a Brookings Institution economist and member of TIME'S Board of Economists, whose name also has been mentioned, says Carter would make a mistake in appointing him because the chairman should be someone with closer ties to the financial community.) On the other hand. Carter is under heavy pressure from...
Businessmen have a valid point in contending that Carter could have refrained from politically inspired moves that are likely to make inflation worse: increasing farm subsidies, for example. Arthur Okun, a member of TIME'S Board of Economists and sometime Carter adviser, calculates that the Administration's own acts will add more than a point to the 1978 inflation rate...
...there will not be a recession, say members of TIME's Board of Economists, who gathered in Manhattan last week for a daylong session. Not all were satisfied with the outlook, by any means. Arthur Okun, senior fellow at Washington's Brookings Institution, noted that Washington policymakers, fearful that the rapid advance needed to cut unemployment would plunge the nation into still worse inflation, have kept the economy "on a tightrope." But the economists agreed to a man that business will come out of its summer slowdown-indeed, is already doing so-into a period of steady...