Word: okun
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...Arthur Okun of the Brookings Institution reckons that the bottoming-out process could begin as early as this month or as late as October. "Once we get started, we will have a lot of bounce-back," predicts Okun. "By the fourth quarter, I am willing to bet we will see very strong gains." William Tongue, a University of Illinois economist, expects the recovery to take the shape...
...historic shift by the Congress. Another board member, Otto Eckstein, also sees a healthy stimulus for 1975 but worries that there will be little continued impact in 1976. Most experts seemed to agree with the general view expressed by a third member of the TIME board, Arthur Okun: "It's just what the doctor ordered to get rid of a recession...
...size of the reduction. Experts of all political colors are urging quick action by Congress. "The immediate requirement is for a tax cut," says Greenspan. "Let's get on with the tax cut," echoes James Lynn, director of the Office of Management and Budget. Adds Arthur Okun, a leading Democratic economist: "Speed is more important than size." To Murray Weidenbaum, a top Republican economist, the key question is "Do we go from slumpflation to stagflation? It is to avoid the latter possibility that some of us are pushing a tax cut even though we think the economy will...
...conservatives fear that overstimulation will aggravate inflation just when it seems to be coming under control. They would much prefer the smaller, $22 billion tax-cut proposal, which they figure would be enough to bring on recovery soon after midyear. One dissenter to the mildly optimistic forecast is Arthur Okun. He reckons that even with a tax cut, recovery could be six months off-and perhaps longer. Reason: the full effect of the big drop in employment and incomes has yet to show up in consumer spending, and Okun figures that retail sales will fall during the next several months...
...because they do not want to spend, and not because money is too tight. This, he says, is the explanation for the paradox in the present monetary situation: interest rates are falling even though the money supply is barely increasing. Burns' critics agree-but only partially. Says Arthur Okun of the Brookings Institution, a member of TIME's Board of Economists: "To argue that Fed policy did everything it could is untenable." The critics say that if the Federal Reserve had been more alert to the danger of severe recession last year, interest rates would have come down...