Word: okun
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...severe monthly plunge in 37 years. With production lines shutting down and the number of bankruptcies swelling, President Ford's economists have already abandoned their recent prediction that unemployment this year would average 8.1%. It hit 8.2% in January, is sure to climb in February and, says Arthur Okun, a member of TIME'S Board of Economists, "it will take a miracle to stop it at 9%." The cold statistics do not begin to measure the human dislocation: recent college graduates who cannot find work, middle-aged people who face interrupted careers, older workers whose visions of comfortable...
...Congress and the President as well as by TIME. Tax Expert Joseph Pechman, who directs economic studies at the Brookings Institution, testified at the recent House Ways and Means Committee hearings on President Ford's tax-cut proposals. His recommendation: deepen the rebate by several billion dollars. Arthur Okun, also of Brookings, and University of Minnesota Economist Walter Heller have both served as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Presidents Kennedy and Johnson. Otto Eckstein, Harvard professor and head of Data Resources, Inc., a Cambridge, Mass., think tank, is a former member of the council...
...with its big deficit, will do very little in a $1.4 trillion economy to revive demand, spur production and thus begin restoring jobs. Asserts Tax Specialist Joseph Pechman: "If Congress were to adopt the Ford program lock, stock and barrel, the net stimulus today would be zero." Adds Arthur Okun of the Brookings Institution: "The entire reason for that deficit is that the economy is in terrible shape, and is knocking hell out of revenues and increasing federal expenditures for unemployment and other things." Banker Beryl Sprinkel, one of the few Board members to disagree, argues that the budget figures...
Sealed Bids. One vocal critic of the Kissinger floor plan, Economist Arthur Okun, argues that the consuming nations can best cope with OPEC by bargaining with them individually. If the consuming nations were to insist on, say, taking sealed bids for their oil-import needs, Okun says, some OPEC nations would be sure to start breaking the price line sooner or later. In any case, Okun worries, if the consuming countries try to deal with the producers as a bloc they might just "solidify the position of OPEC as a bargaining agent for its member nations...
...view of Board Member Arthur Okun, Ford's proposal for a two part rebate on 1974 taxes is by itself inadequate. "The Administration's idea, I suppose, is that what the economy needs is a little pump priming or a quick charge. But there's evidence that it is a bigger problem than just getting the economy started." In addition to calling for a total rebate in May, Okun insists that "we need a stimulative net tax cut for 1975 and 1976 that would begin to show up in withholding in July, August or September." The permanent...