Word: okun
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Arthur M. Okun, a senior fellow of the Brookings Institution, former chairman...
...just where the Nixon Administration expects it to be. Corporate profits after taxes will drop 5% to 9% below the $50.8 billion of 1969, and unemployment could rise to a peak of 4.5% to 5% late in the year, just about what CEA Chairman McCracken also seems to expect. Okun, Joseph Pechman and David Grove generally support Heller's forecast,* though they disagree on some details. Okun and Pechman, for instance, forecast a 3% to 6% drop in after-tax profits this year...
Rising Risk. TIME's economic panel feels much more strongly today than it did last fall that the Federal Reserve Board has increased the risk of recession by refusing for too long to permit any increase in the nation's money supply. Last fall Okun saw a 25% chance of unmistakable recession in 1970 and a 10% chance of continued boom. Now he thinks the chance of a continued boom has fallen to zero and the likelihood of a full-blown recession has risen...
...supply increase averaging 3% to 4% at an annual rate over the next six months. Other members disagree only over whether the Reserve Board should reach that target gradually, as Heller and Pechman prefer, or immediately, to make up for having been too stringent too long, as Sprinkel and Okun urge...
...startling annual rate of 7.2%. Members of the Board of Economists, however, are confident that the rate of price increases will soon begin to slow. They insist that the "pause" they foresee, whether or not it qualifies as a recession, will remove inflationary steam from the economy. Says Okun: "The amount and magnitude and duration of the current slowdown will begin to affect the price and wage curves in the near future-not dramatically at first, not consistently, but will affect them. If they do not, I do not know what we are going to do. We will resign...