Word: okun
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That expectation marks a considerable change in the board's thinking. At past meetings, several members maintained that a borderline recession was about as possible as a borderline pregnancy. In December, for example, Arthur Okun declared: "It seems unlikely to me that things will be so poised on the razor's edge that everybody will be scratching his head and saying, 'Should we begin calling this a recession...
There is no doubt that the U.S. could stop inflation cold if it really wanted to. Some economists, notably including Arthur Okun and Walter Heller, * point out that many basic prices would come down quickly and sharply if the Government eliminated most farm-price supports, oil-import quotas, fair-trade laws and tariffs. The U.S. could also strike a mighty blow against inflation if it attacked union apprenticeship rules, which limit the supply and drive up the wages of skilled craftsmen. Economists concede that such structural changes are politically difficult if not impossible to enact. Still, the Government could change...
...watchdog" agency in which business and labor leaders would join in setting "ground rules" for what might be acceptable wage and price increases. He also urges that Nixon adopt the policy of "phone calls, behind-the-scenes confrontations and friendly arm twisting" that Lyndon Johnson followed. Okun claims that such methods would be effective in preventing price increases in concentrated industries like steel, copper, aluminum, autos...
...making headway in its difficult fight against inflationary psychology. All year, Nixon's economic lieutenants have been trying to create a degree of uncertainty in the minds of businessmen, labor and consumers about the prospect for continued prosperity. Many experts find the present outlook no cause for alarm. Arthur Okun, the former head of the Council of Economic Advisers, calls the chance of either a recession or a continued boom "a long shot." By his handicapping, the Government stands a 50% chance of bringing the inflation rate down to about 4% without causing a politically unacceptable rise in unemployment. Still...
Otto Eckstein $992 1.9% 4.4% 6.3% 4.3% 4.6% David Grove $981.3 .9% 4.3% 5.2% 4.4% 4.8% Walter Heller $988 .2% .4% .6% 4.3% to 4.5% 4.7% to 5% Robert Nathan $980 1.5% 4% plus 5.5% 4.5% minus near 5% Joseph Pechman $990 2.2% 4% 6.2% 4.5% 4.8% Arthur Okun $987 2% 4% 6% 4.5% minus 5% to 5.5% Beryl Sprinkle $966 none...