Word: opec
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...Hard to say - it's a tricky game. It'll be up to them, and then prices will also depend on how much cooperation they get from non-OPEC producers like Mexico and Norway...
...other words, if the U.S. slowdown isn't as bad as OPEC expects, it could quickly get a lot worse...
...Well, OPEC isn't trying to cause a global recession - if it turns out they've cut production too much, they'll probably be responsive with a change of direction. And Bush will also be able to look to Mexico, just as Europe will look to Norway...
...recent past, non-OPEC countries have been pretty cooperative in not taking up the slack that OPEC leaves. But Mexico also realizes that a severe U.S. slowdown is going to hit them very hard, and as they try to diversify their economy - not to mention keep up the good start Vincente Fox and George W. Bush have gotten off to - that's the last thing they want. So they might be expected to help out in a pinch...
...OPEC says its goal is price "stability" at $25 to $30 a barrel. As long as the production cuts turn out the way OPEC wants, it shouldn't cause the U.S. too much pain, because remember - almost half of the oil we use is pumped internally, so there's an economic argument for healthy oil prices here too. But if the price gets over $30, there are going to be problems...