Word: oslo
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...those territories, there's no incentive for Arafat or any other Palestinian leader to make peace with Israel. And, of course, no Israeli leader could afford to withdraw from the occupied territories without cast-iron guarantees of Israeli security. Those two premises formed the very foundation of the Oslo peace process, and Oslo's collapse does nothing to change their validity - no peace plan will get off the ground without both ending the occupation and satisfying Israel's security requirements...
...terms of existing political agreements and cease-fires, even as those appeared to have diminishing relevance to the daily clashes. The idea that Arafat would round up terror suspects on his side of the line while the Israelis would keep their own forces on theirs is, after all, an Oslo principle. But Oslo looks like so much history, now. And the Israelis and Palestinians may already be into a low-level state of war, with potentially catastrophic consequences...
...growing disregard for the boundaries established by the Oslo Accord - described as a "provocation" by Washington - suggests that Sharon is betting on a long, low-intensity war with the Palestinians rather than on any resumption of the peace process. And Arafat appears to be pinning his hopes on some form of international intervention. Both sides will continue to pay lip service to the Mitchell Report and the cease-fire brokered by CIA director George Tenet, but only in as much as such lip service is necessary to achieve their goals. Sharon plainly believes that military action to turn...
...While a bottom-up "unity government" begins to take shape on the Palestinian street, Sharon's own unity government is showing a few signs of strain. Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, architect of the Oslo Accord, criticized last week's seizure of Orient House as a tactical mistake - and it's easy to see why. The move brought fierce international criticism, even from Washington, and turned the focus of the international community away from the suicide bombing. It also painted Sharon into a corner: Because Orient House had no official status in Israeli-Palestinian agreements, it will be politically difficult...
...that Israel resume direct control over areas currently governed by Arafat. And the Israelis would be dealing then with hard-liners favoring a long-term low-intensity war to eject Israel from the West Bank and Gaza. Israel's generals know full well that one of the advantages of Oslo was that it made the occupation easier, by removing their troops from the towns and cities of the West Bank and Gaza where they were far more vulnerable to Palestinian attack. Reoccupying territory ceded to Arafat may prove more of a nightmare than the present bloody stalemate...