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Once a hallmark of American industry, productivity improvement in recent years has become elusive. In the 1950s and early 1960s, output per hour of work rose 3.2% annually. But from 1977 to 1982, U.S. manufacturing productivity grew by just .6%, while in West Germany the increase was 2.1%, in France 3.0% and in Japan 3.4%. Last year, however, the U.S. rate increased by 2.8%. In the first quarter of this year it was up at an annual pace of 3.2%. John W. Kendrick, a professor at George Washington University and a guest at last week's TIME Board...
...that only manufacturing has had a healthy productivity increase, while construction and other areas have been less successful. Thurow also pointed out that even highly computerized fields like banking have not posted very encouraging results. Between 1977 and 1982, banks increased their total work force by 21%, but increased output just 8%. Recent figures on U.S. productivity are promising, but TIME'S economists are not ready to declare the beginning of a new era of American economic efficiency...
...Hormuz would no longer be a major threat to most Western economies. "We are in a different world now," he says. The U.S. currently imports only 3% of its oil from the gulf, compared with 13% in 1979. The general view is that if the gulf's present output of 7 million to 8 million bbl. a day, 40% of which comes from Saudi Arabia, were to be cut off, the vacuum could be largely filled by increased exports from nongulf producers such as Nigeria, Mexico, Venezuela, Indonesia and Libya...
...Subsidies have kept books relatively cheap and at the same time prevented venerable bookshops from being killed off by discount chain stores. But Lang's free spending, including an almost completed maison des écrivains (House of Writers) with word processors for budding authors, has neither increased literary output nor raised its quality. Lang's approach-that a Renaissance cannot be legislated-has yet to be demonstrated...
Smaller schools, he added, have more room for change because they don't receive the enormous research grants that Harvard does, creating expectations for research output...