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...Take the unemployment rate: the adverse scenario of the stress test is based on an average unemployment rate of 10.3% for 2009. However, at the current pace unemployment is more likely to hit the 11% mark. On a quarterly basis, the rate of unemployment is already well beyond the levels assumed by the adverse scenario for the end of the first quarter of 2009. Similar considerations apply to U.S. real GDP and home prices. (Read about the top 10 bankruptcies...
...final lesson from all this is that the U.S. and global credit markets are still impaired, and more disruptive uncertainty lies ahead. The economy is still very weak, and while the pace of contraction in real activity is slowing, the global contraction is going to be with us for a while longer. Indeed, a global recovery is conditioned on the health of the U.S. financial system. And even after the stress tests, the health of that system is still in question...
Where Google Flu Trends may prove more useful, however, is in the tracking of an epidemic once it is under way. If the current H1N1 outbreak were to worsen and start to spread more quickly, then Google's system may be able to keep pace with it and alert health officials immediately as the problem grows. "If the disease starts spreading in a particular area, for example, and affects thousands of people, then we hope that our system would detect that within 24 hours," says Ginsberg. The idea would be to catch the rise in cases before too many people...
...October. There are differing spins you can put on this truth. "People like to talk about green shoots," New York University economist Nouriel Roubini said during a recent visit to TIME. "All I see is a lot of yellow weeds." On the other hand, a slowing in the pace of decline during a recession has in the past almost invariably segued into the end of that decline, recession maven Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute said in an e-mail. (See how the recession has affected Americans' spending habits...
...Along with writing a memoir - something Bush has also begun in recent months - financing and building a suitable presidential library has been the initial focus of nearly every President who left the White House since Harry Truman. The historically fast pace of Bush's fundraising has been all the more remarkable for taking place during a period of economic contraction. "He's struck a very positive nerve among a lot of financial sources across the country," said J. French Hill, a Little Rock banker and major Bush campaign bundler who leads the fundraising effort in Arkansas...