Word: pakistanis
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...Pakistanis, too, are likely to take the 18-month timeline as a signal that they should continue to hedge their bets and support the Afghan Taliban in the tribal areas along the border in order to foil a much feared expansion of Indian influence on their northwestern flank. At the moment U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan believe they can continue the battle despite Pakistan's tolerance of the Afghan Taliban leadership within its borders. Should Pakistani policy move toward active aid and support, however, the task of defeating the Afghan insurgency would become impossibly difficult. (See Europe's response...
...Pakistani generals and politicians watching President Obama's West Point address applauded his sensitive tone and offers of additional support for their counterinsurgency efforts and fledgling democracy. But Obama's plan to dispatch 30,000 extra troops to the war next door has been greeted with ambivalence. While Obama's setting a date for the beginning of a withdrawal was welcomed, the element of the new strategy that has Pakistan's military sensing a long-awaited opportunity is the prospect of negotiations with the Taliban. (See pictures of the battle against the Taliban...
...presidential spokesman Farahnaz Ispahani, if the U.S. and NATO fail to eliminate militancy within Afghanistan "speedily and in consultation with Pakistan, there is a fear of a spillover effect." The same concern colors the thinking of the military establishment, which will be making the decisions that matter on the Pakistani side. "The army is caught in a conundrum," says Shuja Nawaz, director of the South Asia Center at the Atlantic Council. "It doesn't want the U.S. to leave in a precipitous manner, but it also concerned that by having more troops in Afghanistan, militants may be pushed into Pakistan...
...exit date cited by Obama in his speech because they do want the U.S. to leave - in an orderly fashion, over time and in the context of negotiations with the Taliban. Given its longtime relationship with the Taliban leadership, which is generally believed to be based in the Pakistani city of Quetta, Pakistan's military establishment hopes to position itself as the mediator in talks that they believe are inevitable...
...Contrary to the American conventional wisdom that sees the U.S. mission in Afghanistan as central to Pakistan's security, Pakistani generals see a U.S. departure as key to stabilizing their country. "What is happening on this side of the border will die down once the American troops begin to withdraw," says Sherpao, echoing a widely held Pakistani assumption. "The extra troops will apply pressure on the Taliban, but then a parallel process would also start. By the time they start leaving, a consensus will begin to be formed on the future of Afghanistan...