Word: pakistans
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...government in Islamabad greeted Obama's speech with "cautious optimism." But, warned presidential spokesman Farahnaz Ispahani, if the U.S. and NATO fail to eliminate militancy within Afghanistan "speedily and in consultation with Pakistan, there is a fear of a spillover effect." The same concern colors the thinking of the military establishment, which will be making the decisions that matter on the Pakistani side. "The army is caught in a conundrum," says Shuja Nawaz, director of the South Asia Center at the Atlantic Council. "It doesn't want the U.S. to leave in a precipitous manner, but it also concerned that...
...Pakistan's generals don't want a hasty U.S. withdrawal, which Nawaz warns would mean "chaos, which is not to anyone's benefit." But they welcomed the exit date cited by Obama in his speech because they do want the U.S. to leave - in an orderly fashion, over time and in the context of negotiations with the Taliban. Given its longtime relationship with the Taliban leadership, which is generally believed to be based in the Pakistani city of Quetta, Pakistan's military establishment hopes to position itself as the mediator in talks that they believe are inevitable...
...Under the circumstances, Obama has made the best of a bad bargain," says prominent opposition politician Mushahid Hussain. "He has lowered his sights and limited his goals. Victory is no longer possible; there will not be nation-building. There is pressure to come to the negotiating table. The Pakistan army will feel comfortable in an arrangement where they are partnering with the Americans on negotiations...
...Contrary to the American conventional wisdom that sees the U.S. mission in Afghanistan as central to Pakistan's security, Pakistani generals see a U.S. departure as key to stabilizing their country. "What is happening on this side of the border will die down once the American troops begin to withdraw," says Sherpao, echoing a widely held Pakistani assumption. "The extra troops will apply pressure on the Taliban, but then a parallel process would also start. By the time they start leaving, a consensus will begin to be formed on the future of Afghanistan...
...Pakistani army sees the conflict in Afghanistan being resolved through negotiations that lead toward the establishment of a new government with greater Pashtun representation and diminished Indian influence. Pakistan's security establishment has never embraced Afghan President Hamid Karzai's government, which it sees as dominated by the ethnic Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara forces of the India-backed Northern Alliance. And it fears that India is expanding its influence there through massive development projects, even accusing India of using Afghanistan as a base from which to destabilize Pakistan...