Word: palestinians
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...Middle East's individual conflicts can be isolated from the region's other flashpoints, making episodes like this one much more difficult to manage, let alone resolve. And at a moment where much of the region's traditional architecture of power - from Iraq through Lebanon to the Palestinian territories - has been demolished or critically weakened but not necessarily replaced, the challenge of containing a crisis in the region is even more daunting...
...opening a second front against the Israelis, Hizballah is showing support for the Palestinians of Gaza, who have been under siege by the Israelis for two weeks since they seized an Israeli captive of their own. Moderate Arab governments like Egypt and Jordan appear unable to ease the plight of the Palestinians, and Hizballah may be helping its main sponsor, Iran, burnish its claims to be standing up to Israel and the U.S. on behalf of the whole region. The movement gained a kind of pan-Arab hero status in 2000, when Israel quit Lebanon and Hizballah was acclaimed...
...felt by all of Lebanese society, Hizballah may be perversely trying to make a case for maintaining its army, given the clear inability of the Lebanese army to stand up to the Israelis. It also, ironically, eclipses even the Damascus-based leadership of Hamas by demanding the release of Palestinian prisoners as part of its price for freeing Hizballah's Israeli captives...
...week operation in Gaza has thus far failed to yield either the return of Corporal Shalit or an end to Palestinian rocket fire, and Hamas appears to be more popular than ever. The Israelis insist that they must erase the threat to their citizenry by taking down the leadership of Hamas and Hizballah, and that a failure to do so would simply invite further provocations. But the track record suggests that military means may be unable to accomplish that goal, and the militants know this. They are clearly betting they can withstand the Israeli offensive as the civilian casualty toll...
...escalation of Middle East tensions is also boosting the fortunes of hard-liners over moderates, at least for now. Jordan's Abdullah II last month nudged Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas toward starting peace talks, but now that appears off the table. Other moderates, including Egypt's Mubarak and Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora, also seem eclipsed. In contrast, it is Khaled Meshal, the militant leader of Hamas in exile, and Hassan Nasrallah, Hizballah's chief in Lebanon, both backed by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran and Assad in Syria, who are driving current developments...