Word: perots
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...expected, more voters participated than did in the 1980s; 54% of those 18 and older went to the polls, vs. 50% in 1988. Aside from turnout tending to increase in hard times, registration rose this year, and Perot attracted new participants. In late October, when Perot climbed briefly in the polls and caused the margin between Clinton and Bush to tighten, it appeared that the free-spending independent would be the biggest beneficiary of the increased turnout. But Clinton got 48% of those who said they were voting for the first time, vs. 29% for Bush and 23% for Perot...
That was another sign that the Democrat capitalized on the ferment in this year's politics. All three candidates talked about change, Perot in the most vivid terms. Bush tried to warn voters that Clinton's new direction would be too radical and costly. Clinton clearly won that argument by a significant margin. Asked to rank the importance of nine "candidate qualities," change drew the highest response (38%). Clinton won nearly two-thirds of that group, while Bush came in third...
Despite the fluctuations in opinion polls during the last two weeks of the campaign, the overall shape of the race never changed. Campaign Hotline, the daily political newsletter, counted 196 national surveys after Perot left the race on July 16. Bush did not lead in a single one. Clinton's advantage in early autumn in most polls ran in double digits. Growing doubts about Clinton, Perot's dramatic re-entry on Oct. 1, the independent's feisty performance in the debates and his saturation-advertising campaign injected suspense into the contest. Still, most surveys continued to show Clinton clinging...
...variations among competing surveys -- including one showing deadlock a week before the election -- were caused by difficulties in calculating the increase in turnout. The Perot factor was also hard to parse. The Texan drew many of the voters who said they valued change, and might have continued to surge had he not wounded himself with his reckless charges about Republican dirty tricks. When asked the hypothetical question of how they would have voted had Perot not been on the ballot, Clinton edged Bush by 7 percentage points...
...Though Perot's presence cost Clinton a popular-vote majority, the geographic sweep of the Governor's victory was impressive. But the electorate is hardly starry-eyed about the President-elect or united on just how activist the next Administration should be. Asked on Election Day whether a Clinton victory would make them feel excited, optimistic, concerned or scared, 42% responded positively, while 54% expressed apprehension. And more voters still preferred a Federal Government that spends less of their tax money to one that seeks to provide more services. Countering those attitudes, as well as grappling with the economic problems...