Word: polled
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...Actual projections are made by "decision desks" at the networks - small groups of journalists and polling experts who use exit data and actual returns to decide when to announce winners. So even though all the networks have access to the same exit poll data, they often don't broadcast projections at the same time. During the primary season, the networks used exit poll data to slice the electorate into various demographic groups - giving viewers proof, for example, of Barack Obama's strength over Hillary Clinton among black voters and Clinton's popularity among older voters. These tidbits help fill airtime...
...past, exit-poll interviewers have oversampled Democrats. Remember 2004? Exit polls projected a John Kerry victory by 3%, while the official count had Bush winning by 2.5%. More recently, exit polls were a mess during this year's primaries, especially in Obama's case, as no one needs to be reminded. Today, this bias may be particularly strong, since Democrats are so gosh-darn exuberant about their candidate - and thus most likely to talk to exit-pollers...
...nuts. Here are the early trends based on Associated Press exit-poll reports...
...thing, there has been a strict quarantine in place since 2006 to avoid early leaks of totally unreliable data - which is what happened in 2004. This year, no exit poll data was released until 5 p.m. E.T., and only a handful of National Election Pool officials were allowed to see the early data...
...exit pollsters are also getting better training to help them avoid oversampling Democrats. Here is how an exit poll is supposed to work: pollsters stand outside more than 1,000 precincts around the country, all of which have been scientifically chosen to represent a particular area. As voters leave their polling places, the interviewer tries to randomly select about 100 of them to fill out a questionnaire...