Word: polling
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...University of Wisconsin political-science professor Charles Franklin has crunched early-October tracking-poll data and found that Regina Hansley is pretty typical. Undecided voters are no more likely to express questionable attitudes about African Americans than are the public as a whole. He did find, however, that undecided voters are more likely to be predicted as McCain voters than are the general population; 50% of undecideds will likely go for McCain, compared with the 36% of decided voters who say they will pull the lever for the Republican...
...Salter pointed to a recent Mason-Dixon poll that suggested the race had tightened since mid-October in Florida, a crucial state for McCain, with Obama's lead narrowing to just two points. (Other recent polls have shown the Obama lead as big as 7 points in Florida.) McCain has also recently retaken the lead in a Real Clear Politics average of polls for Missouri, where the race is essentially tied. The race has also narrowed in public polling of Pennsylvania, which McCain is targeting with events on Saturday and Sunday. Obama led in the state by an average...
...Dole, by contrast, faced numbers much more dire than McCain in the final weeks of his race. A 1996 Gallup tracking poll found Dole with just 35% of the national popular vote on the eve of election, compared to 51% for Clinton and 8% for Ross Perot. On election day, Dole carried 19 states and 41% of the vote, compared to Clinton's 31 states and 49% share...
...Obama is leading in Ohio by just three percentage points, within the margin of error, according to the University of Cincinnati's latest Ohio Poll. But only two issues predominate everywhere in Ohio: the economy, and the looming possibility of warfare over election mechanics...
...Ohio's largest population centers are not really in play this election season, according to Eric Rademacher, co-director of the Ohio Poll. McCain likely will perform well in southwest Ohio, which includes Cincinnati, Dayton and their exurbs, despite Obama's success registering new voters and his strength among Cincinnati's African-American population. "McCain expects his core voters to come out" in Cincinnati, Rademacher says. "Obama is just trying to minimize the damage...