Word: polling
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While the chorus of pundits and party elders calling for her to run up a white flag continues, Hillary Clinton maintains her strong bond with the clock-punching white working people who have long been central to the Democratic identity. According to a new TIME poll of likely Democratic voters in the state, Clinton leads Obama 49% to 41%. Three and a half months after Obama's breakthrough win in Iowa, Joe and Jo Lunchbucket still aren't buying the audacity of hope. Indeed, only 56% of Clinton's supporters said they were likely to vote for Obama in November...
Backed by more than half of all white female Democrats, Hillary Clinton holds a six point lead over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania, a new statewide poll by TIME reveals. When leaners - voters who have not firmly decided whom to vote for but are leaning one way or the other - are added in, Clinton's six point lead grows to eight points...
...There also appears to be a measure of deep anti-Obama sentiment in Clinton's Keystone State coalition. Roughly a quarter of Clinton voters - 26%, the poll found - say they "would be more likely" to vote for John McCain in the general election if Obama is eventually the Democratic nominee. By contrast, only 16% of Obama's backers report they would be likely to vote for McCain if Clinton emerged as the party's nominee...
...TIME poll shows other advantages for Clinton in Pennsylvania when voters who lean toward one candidate or another are added in, including signs of Clinton's inherent strengths among women. Clinton does better with both male and female voters, but women would break for her in greater numbers than men would, the survey reports...
...both candidates will find plenty of reasons in the poll to contest the state right to the end. One in five Pennsylvania Democrats has yet to pick a favorite candidate; and roughly one in six voters who told TIME they favor either Obama or Clinton said they could change their minds in the next two weeks. Notes Stanley Feldman, the SUNY Stonybrook political scientist who analyzed the poll for TIME, "Clinton's six point lead over Obama at this point should not make her very comfortable. There is still plenty of opportunity for Obama to gain the voters he needs...