Word: pollinger
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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The first round of data from exit polls is out, and there are some demographic trends that may (or may not!) tell us something about what to expect tonight. But remember: Exit polls are compiled from interviews with voters as they leave polling places. They are notoriously unreliable.
Theoretically, interviewers are supposed to stop voters at random - choosing, for example, every ninth voter to survey. But that is easier said than done when you are standing outside a crowded polling place desperately searching for a friendly face.
The exit pollsters are also getting better training to help them avoid oversampling Democrats. Here is how an exit poll is supposed to work: pollsters stand outside more than 1,000 precincts around the country, all of which have been scientifically chosen to represent a particular area. As voters leave...
For example, the interviewer might approach every ninth voter. But this is a lot easier said than done when you are standing more than 40 feet outside of a busy polling place at rush hour. About half of the people approached decline to participate (a percentage that has been steadily...
In some places, pollsters are allowed to stand closer to polling places than they were before, which may also help improve the response rate. And the questionnaire is a little shorter, so more voters may be willing to participate.