Word: pollinger
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IN THE ARENA: Joe Klein on what's wrong with polling and focus groups 29
Reality, unfortunately, is stingy with outspoken political heroes. Mavericks tend to lose, even compelling ones like John McCain. There is a reason for that: inconvenient truths are inconvenient to someone. And passion can be scary. McCain's assault on Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell cost him dearly in the 2000...
Take polling, please. The vast majority of Americans--as many as 90%, pollsters have told me privately--refuse to answer questions when the wizard calls (although the number is marginally better this hot election year). People who use cell phones exclusively, mostly younger voters, are unreachable. The wizards say they...
There are other problems. Volatile times make for less accurate polling. The wizards base their model electorates, inevitably, on who voted last time. Earth-shattering events like the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the war in Iraq could yield a substantially different electorate in 2004, but no one knows whether that...
The major challenge, at this stage, remains creating a security environment in which Iraqis are free to go to the polls. Already, some in Washington, such as Defense Secretary Don Rumsfeld, are hedging by suggesting that the election could simply bypass those areas in which insurgent violence renders safe polling...