Word: pollster
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...votes in the primaries. Most politicians tend to be cautious, straitlaced people. Confronted by the raging television torrent, by the strange new theatrics of public performance, which makes every last word or handshake a potentially career-threatening experience, they sought creative help to navigate the waters. And so, the pollster-consultant industrial complex was born. By 1976, the process had been turned upside down. A politician most Americans had never heard of-Governor Jimmy Carter of Georgia-won the Democratic nomination, and then the presidency. Ronald Reagan nearly defeated the incumbent President Gerald Ford for the Republican nomination. Carter...
...pollster David Winston argues that the importance of border security resonates more strongly with the public than any other part of the immigration issue, despite the large turnout for last weekend's demonstrations. "The views of most of the people marching in the streets of L.A. and other cities last weekend bear little or no resemblance to the majority of public opinion in this country when it comes to illegal immigration," Winston wrote in a column for the Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call. He cited polls suggesting the majority of Americans view immigration reform as a security issue, want...
...illegal immigrants already here. While he has left open the possibility of backing a bill that includes a guest-worker provision, he's determined to get stronger border enforcement passed, which will please conservative voters who will pick the G.O.P. nominee in 2008. David Winston, a veteran G.O.P. pollster, says that Frist--who plans to retire from the Senate after this year--"is clearly laying out this marker." If he can succeed in passing an immigration bill--especially his own--he may regain some of the luster he lost last year. If he can't, he may return home...
...party leaders are warning privately against taking that strategy too far. "If Diet Coke criticizes Coke, people buy Pepsi, not Diet Coke," said Ken Mehlman, chairman of the Republican National Committee. In an internal Republican Party memo provided to TIME, Jan van Lohuizen, a longtime Bush pollster, warns candidates tempted to distance themselves that "President Bush drives our image and will do so until we have real national front-runners for the '08 nomination. If he drops, we all drop." Another Republican strategist describes the problem for G.O.P. candidates this way: "Adding weight to the anchor doesn't help them...
...book Revolution, George Barna, Evangelicalism's best-known and perhaps most enthusiastic pollster, named simple church as one of several "mini-movements" vacuuming up "millions of believers [who] have stopped going to [standard] church." In two decades, he wrote, "only about one-third of the population" will rely on conventional congregations. Not everyone buys Barna's numbers - previous estimates set house churchers at a minuscule 50,000 - but some serious players are intrigued...