Word: pollstering
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...some analysts say there is little evidence the Bradley effect still exists-if it ever did. Among the more persuasive voices in this camp is V. Lance Tarrance, Jr. When he calls the Bradley effect "a pernicious canard," Tarrance speaks with some authority-he was the pollster for Bradley's opponent, George Deukmejian. Tarrance argues the effect was merely a result of bad data: the poll declaring Bradley a prohibitive favorite ignored Deukmejian's advantages among absentee and early voters. To give credence to a Bradley effect in this year's election, Tarrance argues, "is to damage our democracy...
...find out how to do this, I called pollster Frank Luntz. He warned that in addition to excruciating boredom, I'd experience a lot of rejection. But Luntz said that when people turn me down, I should chase them and do a hard sell: "You say, 'Give me 15 seconds. From one human being to another, 15 seconds. I'm here because you're important. I'm here because you matter. They sent me here because you and the people who don't want to answer this question matter more to my magazine than any other Americans. Please teach...
Because I'm not a professional pollster, my results, much like my questions, were unusual. For instance, while 32% of voters said the economy was their No. 1 issue, 12% chose Supreme Court appointments, 4% cared most about health care, and a shocking 56% fell under the category "I forgot to ask that question...
...Peter Brown, an independent pollster of swing states at Quinnipiac University, put the McCain problem into stark historical relief last week, when he released polls from Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, which all showed McCain slipping. "Senator John McCain has his work cut out for him if he is to win the presidency," Brown said. "There does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half-century...
...same time, campaign aides laid out benchmarks for success. "I outlined the campaign this way: We need to be tied before the conventions; we were," says Bill McInturff, McCain's top pollster. "We need to be ahead after our convention; we were. We need to be roughly tied at the debates." After that, however, McInturff told his candidate, the campaign was a "black hole...