Word: pollstering
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...control policies. Generally, however, the numbers are discouraging to Democrats. In a new Yankelovich, Skelly & White survey conducted for TIME, 45% of respondents say they would vote for Reagan, 31% for Mondale (see following story). Interestingly, all the national polls found Mondale's postnomination surge to be short-lived. Pollster Lou Harris believes that the hoopla surrounding the Olympics "totally wiped the memory of the Democratic Convention away." Political professionals regard summer surveys as rough sketches of attitudes, however, believing that voters do not focus on the campaign until after Labor Day. Reagan's analysts say they expect the President...
...election prospects, the grim recession has ended. Inflation is at a twelve-year low, unemployment is no worse than when Reagan took office, interest rates have fallen nine points from their peak in 1980. "The perceived well-being of the economy is very good," says Southern Pollster Claibourne Darden. "Whether Reagan is responsible for it or not is [politically] immaterial." A line Reagan used with great effect in his campaign against Jimmy Carter is, in 1984, a reverse showstopper. "Tell me," he asked in Austin last month, "are you better off today than you were four years ago?" "Yes!" they...
Beyond that, only one prediction seems safe: Ferraro will be scrutinized, written about, pictured on TV, quizzed at news conferences, debated over living-room tables more than any vice-presidential candidate in decades?if not ever. Indeed, says California Pollster Mervin Field, "apart from a movie star, she will be covered more than any other woman...
Earlier polls generally had shown a woman vice-presidential candidate would attract about as many voters as she would repel. Politicians, and some pollsters, are not at all sure, though, that the surveys are correctly measuring the extent of potential backlash. They note that voters have been asked to respond to a theoretical situation that they have never actually had to face. One Republican pollster points out another factor that may distort the results: the majority of the people employed organizations to question voters are women, and men may hesitate to express unfavorable opinions of a woman candidate to them...
...come? Economic and ideological divisions among women are considerable, and women are scarcely likely to vote as a bloc. Still, some analysts believe that a historic shift could be hastened by Ferraro's candidacy. "The Democratic Party by this step has clearly embarked on redefining the party," says Pollster Steve Teichner. "This is a critical development in the realignment of political parties as we have known them...