Word: pollstering
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...cuts a fine figure at ceremonies, but in hard times he might seem much too blithe and out of touch. The Democrats will argue, of course, that hard times are looming, that the big deficit and rising interest rates presage economic disaster. "The fear factor is important," says Democratic Pollster Peter Hart. "People will ask, Will I be unemployed in the next twelve months...
...West. Reagan can count on sweeping at least 95 of the 111 Electoral College votes in the 13 Western states. That means he starts off with 17% of the Electoral College. In the South, the President's conservatism is so popular that Atlanta Pollster Claibourne Darden believes "Reagan has only himself to beat now." In the Midwest he is showing surprising strength in the key states of Ohio and Michigan, where he is being helped by the comeback of the auto industry...
...state has been the minimal campaign boost expected of a running mate, and sometimes the only one: when Chester Arthur ran for Veep in 1880 on a ticket headed by James Garfield, he did not venture out of New York for the entire campaign-and carried it. In 1960, Pollster Louis Harris found that Lyndon Johnson added a crucial 4 percentage points to John Kennedy's standing in Texas, which was essential to a Democratic victory. However, not every running mate comes with a home-field advantage: since 1952, the 16 vice-presidential candidates have delivered their own states...
...billion was cut from the federal food stamp program. Women and children are 85% of the recipients. "The feminization of poverty" is a powerful catch phrase. It may haunt Reagan. "You can talk about the importance of union members, or the importance of blacks," says University of Michigan Pollster Michael Traugott. "But none of these groups compare in size to adult females...
...vote for Reagan." In Ohio, fully one-third of the voters in the Democratic primary told TV network exit pollers the same thing. In North Carolina, the exit polls anticipated a defection rate from Mondale that was even higher: 40%. A yet-to-be-released survey by Atlanta-based Pollster Claibourne Darden indicates that 70% of the voters who went with Hart in nine Southern states would vote for Reagan in November if Mondale wins the nomination...