Word: pollstering
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Billy Carter watched from a box in the balcony and Pat Caddell '72, Carter's pollster, escorted Lauren Bacall. The big names left after Carter's appearance, but the dancers danced until...
...decisive than the blacks. Carter lost the white vote, 47.6% to 51.3%. But he won roughly 92% of the 6.6 million black votes, according to Washington's Joint Center for Political Studies. Though a CBS survey gave Carter only 82% of the black vote and the analysis by Pollster Louis Harris gave him 87.3%, the Joint Center is considered more reliable since it compiled statistics from 1,165 precincts where blacks account for 87% or more of the population. Carter's showing compares well with George McGovern's 87% of the black vote in 1972, Hubert Humphrey...
...prove to be the white Southern voters who saw him as moderately conservative. Southern whites, after all, gave about three-quarters of their votes to Richard Nixon in 1972. If Carter seems to be overly attentive to blacks, they may quickly desert him. Carter's own pollster, Pat Caddell, feels that the Democratic vote among white Southerners was abnormally large; only Native Son Carter could have captured it this year...
...finally, that made Carter's march north from Georgia feasible. Carter does not end up as a figure who is very popular nationally; though he received 52% of the vote in the East, he lost the Midwest (49%) and the West (46.8%). It was also, for America, notes Pollster Daniel Yankelovich, an election that fractured to a marked degree along the fault line separating the haves and havenots. The affluent, the well-educated, the suburbanites largely went for Ford; the socially and economically disadvantaged for Carter. Thus Carter is in a position similar to that of John Kennedy...
...final sampling for TIME, completed Oct. 19, Pollster Daniel Yankelovich found Jimmy Carter ahead of Gerald Ford, 45% to 42%. That lead was precisely the margin by which the Democrat, according to nearly complete returns, won the popular vote (51% to 48%). George Gallup continued polling until three days before the election and gave Ford an edge of 47% to 46%. Louis Harris wound up a day later and found Carter ahead by 46% to 45%. Given the standard 3 point margin for error, all three polling organizations did well in detecting a close race...