Word: pollstering
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...barely accept the notion. "We thought that corruption might happen in Germany or the United States, but never here," says Per Bill, a Member of the Swedish Parliament. Confidence in big business in Sweden has fallen from 60% in 1995 to just 28% last year, according to Swedish pollster SIFO. "There is a severe crisis in public confidence in the business sector," says Erik Asbrink, who heads a five-member commission appointed by the Swedish government to restore trust. Skandia is an especially severe psychological blow. The $4.7 billion firm is the largest insurer in the Nordic area...
Meanwhile, at the White House and Bush-Cheney campaign headquarters in a sedate office building in Arlington, Va., all is relatively calm. A lot can happen between February and November: more bad guys captured abroad, more good economic news at home. Pollster Matthew Dowd frequently reassures folks that the President's numbers are not unlike Ronald Reagan's in 1984 or Clinton's in 1996, that a certain weakening is to be expected as the opposition converges behind a nominee, who gets a big boost of positive press coverage. "Just because they're out there calling us a liar doesn...
...safe, steady guy the party matchmakers had offered up in the first place. It happened with Mondale and Hart, Buchanan and Dole, McCain and Bush. Kerry fans were on the streets with signs saying DATED DEAN, MARRIED KERRY. "They switched from grievance to governance," explains Dick Gephardt's pollster Ed Reilly. "They switched from who was the loudest voice to who can lead. Kerry fits that picture well, and that's why they went with him." The question for every campaign is, will they stick, or are voters still shopping around--and if so, is anyone else on their list...
...playing for keeps. But this meant he could least afford to make a mistake. Once the conventional wisdom challenged his electability, the rationale for his candidacy started to crumble, and voters went searching elsewhere. "Six months ago, they were all looking for straight talk," said Joe Lieberman pollster Mark Penn. "Now they're looking for someone who is serious enough to be President...
That seems a perfect fit for Dean's ad hoc bellicosity. But negative ads appear to be the only traditional consultant-pollster black art in which he is willing to indulge. "We've used polling differently from every other campaign I've been involved with," Trippi told me. "We didn't use it at all until a few months ago. When Gephardt spent two weeks banging us on TV in Iowa, we wanted to see if that hurt. And I think we've done one focus group. We ran a 3-min. tape of Dean at his most passionate...