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...decades, economic statistician Geoffrey H. Moore tried to improve on the poor record of forecasters by identifying financial and economic indicators that had at least some measure of predictive power. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators now compiled by the Conference Board, which includes things like money supply, stock prices, unemployment claims and average weekly hours worked in manufacturing, was his brainchild. Its latest release, which came out on Thursday, showed a decline along the lines of the last recession...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Looking Ahead: A Bad Recession or Something Worse? | 11/21/2008 | See Source »

...Given that poor p.r. offensive, it's no wonder Democratic leaders demanded that the companies prove they can not only survive with these loans but also repay them. "Until they show us the plan, we cannot show them the money," Pelosi quipped. Of course, what passes for a viable plan - or whether Congress is in any position to judge it - is anyone's guess. A Democratic leadership aide said lawmakers are looking for "proof that they won't be back, hat in hand, in 12 months' time." Another said they desired evidence "that they will be able to operate...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Congress Sends Detroit Execs Back — With Homework | 11/20/2008 | See Source »

...their value as scrap, with China the big buyer, exceeded their face value. China's scrap trade has lifted the fortunes of both the very wealthy - such as Nine Dragons Paper CEO Zhang Yin, whose recycled-paper manufacturing company made her China's richest person in 2006 - and very poor farmers who have migrated to the city to earn more from recycling than they ever could by working the land. (See pictures of the global financial crisis...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: In China, Hard Times at the Scrap Heap | 11/20/2008 | See Source »

...Zhang Wei, 42, came here in 1990 from Henan, where his family of six was struggling to live by farming one-third of an acre. "In the past, nobody would do this work," he says. "It's for the outsiders, poor people from the countryside where they can't earn enough to eat meat even." Now the specter of deprivation is emerging again. Plastic bottles, which sold for $1,175 to $1,300 a ton as recently as the summer, are now trading in the $300-to-$450-a-ton range. Zhang claims that as a result of the downturn...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: In China, Hard Times at the Scrap Heap | 11/20/2008 | See Source »

...higher costs, slowing orders and tightening credit, thousands of factories owned by Hong Kong firms are closing up in southern China's industrial heartland. This week, HSBC, the city's largest bank, said it would layoff about 450 people in Hong Kong due to deteriorating business conditions and a poor outlook for next year. Supply chain-management firm Li and Fung, which sources clothing and other consumer goods for major American retailers and brands, announced this month that it was "undertaking a critical review of its cost structure" and could lay off as much as 4% of its local staff...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Due to the Economy, Stress Boils Over in Hong Kong | 11/20/2008 | See Source »

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