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...Texas and Ohio, Clinton needs a solid victory here to justify a potential triumph at the convention with a superdelegate strategy. Obama needs to counter that strategy by piling up the pledged delegates, to blunt any Clinton hold on the superdelegates that is based on momentum and growing popular support. "Neither Clinton nor Obama can afford to bypass [Pennsylvania]," said pollster and political analyst G. Terry Madonna of Franklin & Marshall College. "They can't afford to let it alone even though it won't give anyone enough pledged delegates for a victory at the convention." Madonna's latest poll, taken...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Primary to End All Primaries? | 3/5/2008 | See Source »

Clinton is emboldened not just by her Tuesday wins, but by several other developments over the past few days. She has now taken the popular votes in all the major industrial states that have held contests, except for Obama's home state of Illinois. Additionally, from Clinton's point of view, Obama is only now beginning to experience the aggressive media scrutiny standard for a serious presidential candidate. And she has finally found an advertising and rhetorical strategy to highlight Obama's relative lack of national security experience - his greatest weakness with voters...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Clinton Wins Big, but Math Is Troubling | 3/5/2008 | See Source »

Spain's electoral campaign has never been a decorous affair, but Monday night's nationally televised electoral debate between Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and Popular Party (PP) candidate Mariano Rajoy was often downright nasty. For long stretches, it sank into a cacophony of insults, interruptions, and petty squabbling over who was the bigger liar. Yet in the end, Zapatero offered more concrete prescriptions for the next legislature, and that, it seems, persuaded the Spanish public to deem him the victor of this second debate, just as it had after the first, held a week...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Spain's Tough Race Enters Final Stretch | 3/5/2008 | See Source »

...race is certainly tight. The Center for Sociological Research, Spain's main polling institution, released a survey on February 16 giving the Socialists a slim 1.5-point advantage over the Popular Party. More recently, Metroscopia's poll for the liberal newspaper El País put the Socialists' lead at 4.1%. Either way, says University of Murcia political scientist Ismael Crespo, the Socialists have to hope for a high turnout. "The PP's ranks are very loyal; 80 to 85% of those who voted for them in 2004 will vote for them this time," he says. "But traditionally, about...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Spain's Tough Race Enters Final Stretch | 3/5/2008 | See Source »

...opposition Popular Party's strategy has been predictably simple: Blame the Socialists. "The government has provoked a crisis of confidence," says Gustavo de Arístegui, the PP's foreign affairs spokesperson and a candidate for parliamentary reelection. "Their economic policies have been very risky, very irresponsible, and Spanish families are paying the price." The PP has also linked economic woes to what it believes is widespread anxiety over Spain's burgeoning immigrant population. During Monday's debate, Rajoy blamed Zapatero for 2005's mass regularization of immigrants, arguing that they "couldn't all fit." Borrowing a page from French...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Spain's Tough Race Enters Final Stretch | 3/5/2008 | See Source »

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